DAILY ANALYSIS

Crude oil demand data is weak, bearish trend still good for sell option.

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Crude oil demand data is weak, bearish trend still good for sell option.
Independent analyst: Jian Xiang Qi
Date: 09 October 2019

Fundamental Analysis:
Crude oil oscillated higher after the market opened on Monday, hitting a pressure near 53.97, and crude oil fell sharply after two trading days. Yesterday, the crude oil as a whole was in a volatility, and making daily Bearish candlestick.

Crude oil as a whole fell. According to data from the London Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) yesterday, the volume of crude oil in December 2019 was 269,339 lots, decreased 32,367 lots in crude oil on October 8. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced the future direction of the short-term EIA yesterday, which will increase the US crude oil production output by 1.27 million barrels per day this year. The previous forecast is to increase the daily output to 1.25 million barrels. EIA lowered its global crude oil demand growth forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 840,000 barrels per day in 2019, and lowered its global crude oil demand growth forecast by 2020 to 100,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day.

In the data released by the US oil service Baker Hughes last Friday, as of last Friday, the number of starts of crude oil production in the US oil-poor drilling decreased by 3-710, and the drilling production decreased for two consecutive months and hit the lowest point since 2017 may In the morning of this morning, the API crude oil inventory data for the week from October 4 to October 4 was released. The published value was 413, and the data was negative.

Tonight, we’re once again concerned about the EIA crude oil inventory data from the United States to the week of October 4 at 22:30 Beijing time. The previous value was 310.4, while the predicted value was 141.3. If the published value is larger than expected, it will be profitable. Tonight, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell co-chaired the round table with local business and community leaders and received similar attention. 


Technical Analysis:
Crude oil fell below 51.84 on Wednesday to make correction. From the monthly line, the crude oil trended down last month. The highest hit 63.51 and then fell sharply. The monthly line received the long shadow of the upper shadow line. The 51.84 stop loss is only a technical correction, and the 50.00 mark is an important support for the monthly line. On the weekly K line, crude oil fell below the short-term multiple moving averages. At present, the top is under pressure from 53.97. In the second half of the week, investors can pay attention to the pressure level, and the overall weekly line is still biased towards the inertia short position.

In the daily trend of D1, the crude oil runs below the 14- and 100-period moving averages, and runs in the middle and lower trajectory of the Bollinger Band. The crude oil is oscillating in the daytime. The daily line can MACD run below the 0-axis port below the 0-axis. Spread, on behalf of the daily rallying momentum is not strong, during the day, Asia-Europe crude oil may still be in a weak state, investors can pay attention to 51.84 support situation, such as broken position can continue to take advantage of the short-selling.

From the short-term trend of H4 hours and H1 hours, the short-term first pressure is near 53.21, and the second pressure is around 53.97. Below focus on the support effect near 51.84, if the crude oil falls below this zone, a new round of shorts is expected to unfold, or tend to find support near the 50.00 integer mark. The overall crude oil short-term trend remains unchanged, and investors can maintain the operational thinking of selling shorts

Trading Strategy (USOIL):
First choice: when rebound on first pressure position 53.20 go short, stop loss 53.50, target 52.50-51.80!

Second election: when rebound on the second pressure level 53.90 go short, stop loss 54.20, target 53.20-52.00!

Disclaimer:
All the information mentioned above only represents the view of corresponding PT. Mentari Mulia Berjangka. The information, opinions and analysis contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable but no representation, expressed or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. PT. Mentari Mulia Berjangka is not responsible for the content of any analysis, advice, comment, suggestion, research report or market data in this article and link to third-party resources.