Newsletter: US PPI data fell sharply, causing the Fed's interest rate cut in October to continue to heat up, and gold may establish an upward trend to return!
【XAU/USD】October 09, 2019 gold analysis and operation reference!
Independent Analyst: Ling Jian Qi
Date: 09 October 2019
Yesterday, the PPI inflation data released by the US fell sharply. Combined with the ISM manufacturing data and ISM non-manufacturing data released last week, the US economy is weak. The downward pressure on the US economy is gradually emerging. From the performance of the data side, in order to complete the Fed as soon as possible the inflation target of 2%, the Fed’s interest rate cut in October is expected to continue to heat up, and the US dollar is under certain pressure.
Last night, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell presided over an activity that mentioned the possibility of increasing QE operations in the current interpretation of the “Fed monetary policy”, acknowledging that the inversion of the yield curve affects business investment confidence, which is transmitted to the consumer confidence market. Therefore, if the CPI data released on Thursday is still below market expectations, it will basically establish the interest rate cut operation of the Fed's October interest rate decision.
Affected by this, yesterday's US dollar index showed a certain decline, the gold price was supported by a large increase. Basically regained the slight advantage of Monday's retracement space, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will host the hearing, the meeting or the topic of yesterday's QE, the dollar The pressure is still there, and after the US stocks turn down yesterday, venture capital or transfer to gold, silver and other markets is expected to push the price of gold to continue to rise.
On the weekly chart, the upward trend of the gold price is basically confirmed. The long-term pattern and the structural trend of the upward extension of the 5 waves are expected to maintain the inertia and continue to expand the space. The shocks that have appeared in the near future are on the one hand, and on the other hand, the timeline. The technical correction of the vector vector release needs to be completed. After the correction confirmation near the price window 1460 is completed, the primary target has been completed. If the next advanced retracement adjustment is continued, the correction confirmation near the time window 1411 is performed. As a result, it has not been launched yet, but it needs to be taken care of and guarded.
On the daily chart construction, the price of gold has been adjusted from around 1557, the primary retracement has been supported by 1484, and the rebound has been adjusted again and the retracement low near 1459 shows a downward ABC stack structure. The structure is expected to return to the upward trend of the upward trend; in addition, the shock of the gold price can construct a retracement channel, and it is expected to maintain the channel inertia before the channel fails to effectively break through, but if it can form an effective breakthrough in the top of the channel area, it will lead upward. The review of the trend, along with the upward extension of the new high expectations; at present, with the back-test of the channel's central axis reference line to stabilize and maintain the advantages of the test performance, plus a certain high position near the top of the channel area to attract disk preparation, or guidance The gold price inertia test is challenged.
In the construction of the four-hour chart, after the gold price test and the vicinity of 1459, the rapid rebound began. After that, the small broken structure attracted the market to follow the disk and showed a certain speed and amplitude advantage, or a small 5 wave extension structure. On Monday, after the gold price was completed, the amount near 1487 could be released. Yesterday, the gold price rebounded. On the other hand, the data was guided by the data. On the other hand, because the correction of the small 4 wave was completed, the structural neckline support was retained and attracted to the technical back. Make up for the follow-up, and then move forward to a small 5 wave to extend the high expectations, so investors are advised to continue to pay attention to the gold price adjustment buying opportunities!
At present, the high-end can temporarily focus on the pressure near the structural reference position 1512/1514. If the gold price is tested, it can break through the pressure near the top of the channel area of 1520/1522, but if it continues or tends to the timeline. At present, the low-end can be concerned about the support around 1502/1500. If the gold price is back to the test, if it can continue to be stable, it will continue to test the challenge. If it breaks back, it will favor the return of the 1495.
First choice: can be long in the range of 1494.00-1497.00, stop loss 1491.00, target 1505.00-1512.00;
Second choice: can be long in the range of 1499.00-1502.00, stop loss 1496.00, target 1508.00-1514.00.
All the information mentioned above only represents the view of corresponding PT. Mentari Mulia Berjangka. The information, opinions and analysis contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable but no representation, expressed orimplied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. PT. Mentari Mulia Berjangka is not responsible for the content of any analysis, advice, comment, suggestion, research report or market data in this article and link to third-party resources