DAILY ANALYSIS

Morning-First Gold Review July 04, 2019: American Holidays Will Be Arrived Soon, Gold Will Be A Great Loan.

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The China Paper Gold Network shows that funds are traded on the world's largest gold exchange (ETF) until July 3, holding 798.44 tons, up 1.76 tons from the previous day, and a net reduction of 50.83 tons this month.
 
The US ADP employment data released on Wednesday (July 3) was less than expected, with only a 102,000 increase, far lower than market expectations of 160,000. After a weak report was released, gold rose to the highest level in one day.

The June ISM non-manufacturing PMI released on Wednesday (July 3) was 55.1, lower than the previous value of 56.9 and estimated at 55.9, the lowest since July 2017, indicating that economic growth slowed, but not down shift like a cliff type.
 
On Wednesday (July 3), US factory orders in May were -0.7%, higher than the previous value of -0.8% but lower than expected -0.5%; comments said that new orders for US-made goods fell in the second month. Shipments have barely increased, indicating that the manufacturing sector continues to be weak. The US Commerce Department said Wednesday that factory orders fell due to weak demand for transportation equipment. Manufacturing industries dragged down by stockpiles, trade tensions and a decline in production of Boeing 737 aircraft Max.

US May durable goods orders (monthly rates) announced on Wednesday (June 26) are -1.3%, lower than the previous value of -2.1% and expected to be -0.2%, also a favorable factor in gold but the market does not react.
 
On Wednesday (July 3), the final value of the June Markit US service PMI was 51.5, higher than previous values ​​and expectations, Head of Business Economics Markit Chris Williamson said manufacturing and service PMI data implies that the US economy is growing at an annual rate. Will increase by 1.5%, growth in the service industry has increased.

The US core PCE price index for May released on Friday (June 28) is 1.6%, according to the previous value and expectation value, the effect on the market is very small. US personal monthly expenditure in May was 0.4%, higher than the previous value of 0.3%, but in line with expectations. The agency's agency commented that US consumer spending increased moderately in May, and prices rose slightly, indicating that economic growth slowing and mild inflationary pressure. For this reason, it is possible for the Fed to cut interest rates next month.
 
The final value of the US Consumer Confidence Index for the University of Michigan in June (June 28) was 98.2, surpassing the previous value of 97.9 and market expectations 98; The small overall decline in June was caused entirely by households with income in the top third of the distribution, which more often mentioned the negative impact of tariffs, recorded 45%, up from 30% last month, "said Consumer Survey chief economist Richard Curtin.

On Thursday (June 27), the number of people applying for unemployment benefits from the United States until June 22 was 216,000, better than the previous value of 227,000 and expected to be 220,000. The agency's agency commented that last week's number of US initials had exceeded the expected number, but because car manufacturers temporarily shut down their plants for summer equipment, the number of jobless claims will increase further in several renovations in the coming weeks. Apart from strong labor market fundamentals, the overall economy is slowing down.
 
FXSTREET said in a report released on Wednesday (July 3) that the US stock market rose slightly on Wednesday and the Nasdaq hit a record high. Yields on the 10-year US Treasury continued to decline and fell to several-year lows in less than two years. Although the PMI data varies, the US dollar index continues to increase. As the US market remained closed during the holiday on July 4 on Thursday, volatility in gold could remain relatively stable until US non-farm labor data was released on Friday.

The US ADP employment data released on Wednesday was less than expected, well below market expectations of 160,000, fueling speculation that the market was not as expected for non-agricultural labor. After the report was released, gold rose to the highest level in one day . The final value of the Markit US service PMI in June was higher than previous values ​​and expectations, indicating that the US economy slowed significantly in the second quarter. The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI in June was lower than previous values ​​and expectations, reaching a new low since July 2017, indicating that economic growth slowed. The level of US factory orders in May was higher than the previous value, but lower than expected, indicating that the manufacturing industry continued to weaken. Despite market risk sentiment avoidance and loose expectations from each country's central bank still supporting gold, a sharp rise in gold prices has caused some profit taking, and it is difficult to get rid of short-term shock patterns. On that day, the US dollar index soared and continued to slide below 97. Spot gold reached 1437.60 US dollars per ounce and then dived. The price of gold was still in a four-week upward trend, and the increase returned to $ 1400 and then settled . The next step is challenging to the number 1450.